a écrit le 15 décembre 2010 à 20h38 @ Fin
Pockets of great risk and instability certainly remain, but the long-term trends look good. Global demand for commodities is rising, and Africa is well positioned to profit. The fastest-growing demand for these raw inputs comes from the world's emerging economies, with which sub-Saharan Africa now conducts half its trade. Africa's production of oil, gas, minerals, and other resources is projected to grow at 2 to 4 percent per year for the next 10 years. At current prices, this will raise the value of resource production to $540 billion by 2020 -- and possibly much higher depending on how commodity prices rise.
An even bigger source of growth will be the rise of the urban African consumer. In 1980, just 28 percent of Africans lived in cities. Today, 40 percent of the continent's 1 billion do, a portion close to China's, larger than India's, and likely to keep growing in the coming years. The number of households with discretionary income is projected to grow 50 percent over the next 10 years to 128 million. Already, Africa's household spending tops $860 billion a year, more than that of India or Russia. And consumer spending in Africa is growing two to three times faster than in the wealthy developed countries and could be worth $1.4 trillion in annual revenue within a decade.
Nothing spawns growth like growth, and Africa's urbanization is also increasing demand for new roads, rail systems, clean water, power generation, and other infrastructure. Even agriculture, in which Africa has long lagged, is poised for takeoff. The continent is home to 60 percent of the world's uncultivated arable land. So if farmers brought more of it into use, raised the yields on key crops to 80 percent of the world average, and shifted cultivation to higher-value crops, the continent's famers could increase the value of their annual agricultural output from $280 billion today to around $500 billion by 2020.
Multinational companies have already shifted their mindsets, even if the political world is still used to thinking of Africa as a charity case. Telecom firms have signed up 316 million new African subscribers since 2000, more than the population of the United States. Walmart recently bid $4.6 billion for one of the region's largest retailers, confirmation that global businesses think Africa holds commercial potential on a scale not seen since China opened up more than 20 years ago. Those prospects will only grow as Africa urbanizes; already, the continent is home to 52 cities with populations of at l
Pockets of great risk and instability certainly remain, but the long-term trends look good. Global demand for commodities is rising, and Africa is well positioned to profit. The fastest-growing demand for these raw inputs comes from the world's emerging economies, with which sub-Saharan Africa now conducts half its trade. Africa's production of oil, gas, minerals, and other resources is projected to grow at 2 to 4 percent per year for the next 10 years. At current prices, this will raise the value of resource production to $540 billion by 2020 -- and possibly much higher depending on how commodity prices rise.
An even bigger source of growth will be the rise of the urban African consumer. In 1980, just 28 percent of Africans lived in cities. Today, 40 percent of the continent's 1 billion do, a portion close to China's, larger than India's, and likely to keep growing in the coming years. The number of households with discretionary income is projected to grow 50 percent over the next 10 years to 128 million. Already, Africa's household spending tops $860 billion a year, more than that of India or Russia. And consumer spending in Africa is growing two to three times faster than in the wealthy developed countries and could be worth $1.4 trillion in annual revenue within a decade.
Nothing spawns growth like growth, and Africa's urbanization is also increasing demand for new roads, rail systems, clean water, power generation, and other infrastructure. Even agriculture, in which Africa has long lagged, is poised for takeoff. The continent is home to 60 percent of the world's uncultivated arable land. So if farmers brought more of it into use, raised the yields on key crops to 80 percent of the world average, and shifted cultivation to higher-value crops, the continent's famers could increase the value of their annual agricultural output from $280 billion today to around $500 billion by 2020.
Multinational companies have already shifted their mindsets, even if the political world is still used to thinking of Africa as a charity case. Telecom firms have signed up 316 million new African subscribers since 2000, more than the population of the United States. Walmart recently bid $4.6 billion for one of the region's largest retailers, confirmation that global businesses think Africa holds commercial potential on a scale not seen since China opened up more than 20 years ago. Those prospects will only grow as Africa urbanizes; already, the continent is home to 52 cities with populations of at l
