As the clock ticks towards the African Cup of Nations finals in Tunisia, football fans across the continent are asking which country will take home the prized trophy. Analysts are tipping a West African or North African nation to win the trophy. South Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo are also among the favourites.
East Africa, with Kenya and Rwanda, was initially expected to perform poorly because of minimal experience and lack of exposure in the international arena and because Rwanda and Kenya do not have many experienced professional footballers.
Their teams have never taken part in tournaments like the World Cup finals. Even qualifying for the Nations Cup finals has been a problem.
But they may surprise people. Observers attribute this to improved skills and the desire to join the continent’s elite. It will be remembered that Rwanda beat the continental football giants Ghana to qualify for the Tunisia finals.
Rwanda recently took a major step in football history when they qualified for the group stage of the year 2006 Nations Cup and World Cup qualifiers.
They have taken second string team to the East and Central African Senior Challenge Cup in Sudan while the first team is training in Europe.
This shows how serious the Rwandese have taken the Nations Cup finals. Kenya beat other continental giants South Africa in Tanzania last year to win the Castle Lager Cup.
Given their recent improvement, these two can pull surprises in Tunisia come January, observers say.
While this may sound more like wishful thinking, when it comes to Nations Cup finals, the continent’s attention usually focuses on two regions – West and North.
The two regions have achieved more in club and national team football than the rest. The continent’s attention will focus on three countries from North Africa – Egypt, hosts Tunisia and Morocco. From West Africa, Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal stand out above the rest.
These four countries are top favourites. In the second line, favourites are South Africa, DRC, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast.
But it must be realised that there will be 16 teams in the finals and the going may not be that easy even to the hottest favourites. Football is unpredictable and full of surprises and the best team is not the team which plays better but the team that win.
Pundits say the presence of Cameroon, Nigeria and Senegal can complicate matters for the hosts. Keen followers of the game are convinced that Cameroon are the hottest favourites to retain the trophy, which they won two years ago in Mali. Reasons being advanced as that they stunned the world during the Confederations Cup tournament in France when they beat Colombia, Turkey and Brazil before losing to France in extra time golden goal rule to become the Confederations Cup runners-up.
Many believe the loss to France was by bad luck, after their player Marc-Vivien Foe had died during the tournament.
The Indomitable Lions are also the defending Olympics champions and All Africa Games gold medallists. Before winning gold in this year’s All African Games, they had beaten Egypt and Nigeria. With almost the entire team foreign based, Cameroon stand a better chance to win at Tunisia 2004.
The second favourites are Senegal although some people feel Nigeria are better placed. Senegal, who lost to Cameroon in the penalty shoot-out in the year 2002 Nations Cup finals in Mali, surprised the world when they beat some of football big names in world including then defending champions France, their former colonial masters to reach the quarter final of the year 2002 World cup finals. Senegal also beat South Africa in annual cup competition marking the release of Nelson Mandela from prison. Senegal, who until the 2002 were underdogs in African football, have some of the best footballers in European soil. Liverpool star midfielder and creative playrnaker Ali Hadji Diouf who is currently African footballer of the year is one of them. The squad comprises young talented and old experienced players.
Nigeria are among the aristocrats of African football but certain demands by their players and pride have clouded their performance. In Nigerian squad, everybody feels good, wants to control the coach and sometime it is players who call the shots of who to be left out and who to be included in the squad and this has seriously interfered with their performance.
Nigerian players control their coaches and foreign coaches do not stay with the team for long because they are not independent even from political interference. Nigerians feel they are the best in everything in Africa.
But it must be said they are a good side with both local and foreign based players and are thus among the favourites. South Africa have not been impressive since winning the title in 1996.
This country, which is an economic giant rivalling many European nations, are only good on paper but not in the field. But they are fourth favourites to clinch the trophy in Tunisia.
Apart from Algeria, the rest of North African states are somehow equal – they are all graded as fifth favourites – Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.
Kenya’s fascinating record in the past two years makes it sixth favourites. Now that professionals based in Sweden are with us here Mulee should urge the Kenya Football Federation (KFF) to appeal to Belgian football authorities to release players early enough ahead of the tournament. Belgian league is currently going while that of Sweden is over.
